The release of the World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) has sparked a firestorm of controversy across Nigeria’s economic and energy sectors. At the heart of the debate is a recommendation by the Bretton Woods institution for the Federal Government to reinstate fuel import licenses and reopen the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) market to international competition.
While the World Bank argues this move would curb inflation and lower prices, prominent Nigerian experts and economic bodies, including the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), have hit back. They argue that the push is not only economically “troubling” but a direct violation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which prioritizes domestic refining.

The World Bank’s Stance: “Importation as an Inflation Hedge”

In its report released on April 7, 2024, the World Bank highlighted a concerning trend: domestic petrol prices in Nigeria have risen above import-parity levels. According to the bank, since the Nigerian government stopped issuing import licenses in early 2026 to favor local production (primarily from the Dangote Refinery), a “structural rigidity” has emerged. The bank noted:

• Price Disparity: As of late March 2026, the ex-depot price of petrol from domestic sources was approximately ₦1,275 per litre, while the estimated import-parity price sat lower at ₦1,122 per litre.
• Monopoly Concerns: The bank argues that the suspension of import permits has reduced competition, allowing a single-source supplier dynamic to dictate prices that are 12% higher than what the global market offers.
• The Inflation Threat: With global oil prices surging toward $110 per barrel due to the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, the World Bank warns that without “competitive imports,” Nigeria faces an additional 3.1 percentage point spike in headline inflation.

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Expert Rebuttal: Why the Recommendation is “Deeply Troubling”

Economic experts and industry leaders have described the World Bank’s advice as “flawed,” “disconnected,” and strategically dangerous. Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the CPPE, and Professor Ken Ife, a consultant to ECOWAS, have led the charge in faulting the proposal on several grounds:

1. Violation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)

Professor Ken Ife specifically pointed out that the recommendation runs contrary to the spirit and letter of the PIA 2021. The Act was designed to transition Nigeria from an import-dependent nation to a global refining hub.

“The PIA prioritizes domestic refining to ensure energy security,” Ife argued. “Expanding imports now would undermine the massive private investments made in local refineries and perpetuate our economic vulnerability to external shocks.”

2. The FX Pressure Cooker

A major point of contention is the impact on Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves. Dr. Muda Yusuf warned that returning to a regime of massive fuel imports would:

• Drain Reserves: Nigeria has spent decades depleting its external buffers to fund fuel imports. Reopening that tap would reverse recent gains in reserve accumulation.
• Weaken the Naira: Increased demand for dollars to fund PMS imports would put fresh downward pressure on the Naira, likely negating any “savings” gained from the 12% lower import price.

3. Undermining Local Industrialization

Experts argue that the World Bank is treating competition as a “binary choice” rather than a structural issue. They contend that the “cheaper” imported fuel is often the result of foreign subsidies or lower environmental standards in European “junk” fuel markets. By allowing these imports, Nigeria would effectively be “exporting jobs” and killing its nascent local refining industry just as it reaches scale.

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The “Structural Imbalance” Argument

Kelvin Emmanuel, Principal Partner at The Energy Consulting Practice, dismissed the World Bank’s advice as “not worth a grain of salt.” He noted that Nigeria has finally solved large-scale refining, and imports of low-quality fuels previously rejected in Europe have dropped by 90%.
He argues that the 12% price difference cited by the World Bank is a “short-term distortion” caused by the fact that domestic refiners are still struggling with crude supply issues. Instead of importing finished petrol, experts suggest the government should:

• Enforce Crude Supply in Naira: Ensure local refiners get adequate feedstock without needing to source FX.
• Build Strategic Reserves: Focus on domestic storage rather than international shipping lanes.

The Global Context: Energy Security vs. Free Trade

The irony of the World Bank’s position was not lost on critics. At a time when the U.S., Europe, and China are all moving toward protectionist energy policies to ensure national security, the World Bank is asking Nigeria to do the opposite.
The bank did eventually release a clarification on April 10, acknowledging that “energy security” is a valid concern and that any transition toward a competitive market must be “well-sequenced.” However, for many in Nigeria, the initial recommendation felt like a return to the “failed policies of the past.”

The battle over fuel imports is more than a pricing dispute; it is a battle for the soul of Nigeria’s economic future.

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